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Friday, August 29, 2003   Car Bomb in Najaf This may turn out to be a good thing for our side in the long run. The Shia of Iraq break down into three basic camps: We'll work with you for now Sergeant Shultz neutral Die, Yankee infidel dogs Ayatollah Mohammed Baqr al-Hakim was one of the first group. Moqtada Sadr is the lead dog of the last group. Sadr is the head of his clan or family, though he is only in his twenties. That is the base of his power in Najaf. When he needs to stage a demonstration, he has to use Iranian money to bus people in from the Shia slums of Baghdad. Without Iranian money, or without the tolerance from the clergy in the first two groups, he's toast. Too young to be respected for his knowledge, and too young to know when to quit. A hot head, and probably soon to be cold and dead. The Shia in the first two groups vastly outnumber the third. Only Iranian interference is keeping the third grouping even active. And, as the living conditions in the slums improves day by day, the pool of support shrinks. So, I see this as the catalyst of change in Najaf, with the more moderate clergy finally having an excuse to wack Sadr, or to force him to flee. Wacking him being the preferred strategy. We should not discount the possibility that this was not an internal Shia thing, though all the recent intercine violence suggests that it is. It would serve Sunni purposes to kill al-Hakim and wreck a Shia holy place. It would not surprise me to see Saudi involvement, or Baathist thugs trying to stir the boiling pot. For now, Sadr is number one with a bullet. -- posted by Chuck at Friday, August 29, 2003 | E-mail | Permalink | Main | 0 comments