CharlesSimmins

Jess Phoenix for Congress in CA-25

I had occasion to interact with a candidate for Congress today, Jess Phoenix, on Twitter. The interaction left me curious, and I decided to look for some additional information on the person. It was the result of a debate challenge to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. FYI, Zinke has a BS in Geology, and two unrelated advanced degrees that he obtained while serving his country as a Navy SEAL.

Jess Phoenix is one of several candidates running for Congress in California’s 25th district. Steve Knight is the Republican incumbent. Four people, including Phoenix, are running for the nomination of the Democratic Party. In California’s odd system, all the candidates, Knight and the four Democrats, appear on the ballot in a primary election to be held June 5, 2018. The top two vote getters will vie against each other in the November election. (Barring ties, lack of a majority, etc. Lots of arcane election rules)

“California’s 25th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes part of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.” Clinton carried the district by six points in 2016, while incumbent Knight beat his Democratic challenger 53% to 47%. It was considered a battleground district and will most likely be one for the 2018 election. Phoenix was recruited to run against Knight because of his position on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. He votes with the President’s agenda nearly all the time.

Here is how Phoenix describes herself:

Jess is a volcano scientist and nonprofit founder running to represent the people of California’s 25th Congressional District.

ABD means “all but dissertation”. She has completed all the course work necessary for her doctorate and just needs to finish and present her dissertation.

And, from IMDB:

Wait! That is NOT the same last name. No, it is not. Jess Phoenix is married to an IT professional named Carlos Pelaez.

From Earth, December 2017:

Five years ago, Phoenix and her husband Carlos (both of whom changed their last names to Phoenix from Peláez, which they kept as a middle name, because they wanted something easier to pronounce) leveraged their passion for education and science to found Blueprint Earth, a nonprofit organization that brings scientists together with students to collaboratively inventory the biological and physical traits of selected areas, and to document the connections between the geosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere to create a “blueprint” of that ecosystem.

Her not-for-profit is called Blueprint Earth. According to Guidestar, it received its IRS ruling in 2017. Another site says November 2013. Her LinkedIn site states that the organization was founded in 2013. It appears to be organized as a 501(c)(4).

Its current project is called Mission Mojave.

Guidestar:

Mission Mojave is Blueprint Earth’s first project. We are working with scientists, engineers, and students to catalog one square kilometer of the Mojave Desert. The goal is to create a blueprint of the geology, biology, hydrology, and atmosphere to understand how they all interact. Once we have all of the data, we will test our blueprint by recreating that section of desert, including the spring, the toads, the bighorn sheep, etc. in a giant warehouse nearby.

One square kilometer equals 10,763,910 square feet. According to LiveScience, the largest building in the world by footprint is the Boeing Everett Factory in Everett, Wash. That clocks in at 4.3 million square feet. I would suggest that

recreating that section of desert, including the spring, the toads, the bighorn sheep, etc. in a giant warehouse nearby

is unlikely in the extreme. At best, all of the data points will be crowded together in a way that is far different than the reality in the desert.

Phoenix is advertised as having pledged to take no funds from the oil industry. Perhaps this will make up for the carbon footprint she generated by traveling to Mongolia to participate in a horse race.

The major difference between Phoenix and Zinke seems to be over climate change. Neither is a climatologist. Both rely on statements provided by scientists who are more academically and experience qualified. I have not located any published research with her name on it, possibly because I do not know her maiden name. There does appear to be a couple of references to conference presentations or abstracts, which would be typical of a Masters level student.

She professes a laundry list of other beliefs consistent with left wing Democratic politics. At this time she is running a distant third to two other Democrats in funds raised.

She seems to be a media scientist, in the mode of a Bill Nye or Neil deGrasse Tyson. Nye has a BS in engineering and Tyson’s doctorate is in astrophysics. Both appear frequently to opine on topics that they have little or no experience or study in. Parroting others does not a scientist make. Phoenix did make an appearance on Discovery’s Shark Week, which probably is equal in nerd points to Nye and Tyson’s appearances on The Big Bang Theory.

Images from Twitter are consistent with their Terms of Service. All other images or quotes are presented under the “fair use” exception.

It Never Rains in California

Every year the news media broadcasts dramatic scenes of wildfires burning California. Governor Jerry Brown has declared that

We’re facing a new reality in this state, where fires threaten people’s lives, their properties, their neighbourhoods, and of course billions and billions of dollars.

“With climate change, some scientists are saying southern California is literally burning up.

How frequent are droughts? What is the rainfall, year by year? Does the data back up Governor Brown’s claim?

A site called Los Angeles Almanac compiled rainfall totals for Los Angeles from 1877 through 2016 (a July 1 to June 30 year). They noted that:

Some earlier seasons (especially prior to 1941-1942) did not have complete data. In some cases, as many as 26 days or more were missing in the course of one month.

Yearly rainfall totals for Los Angeles from 1941-42 to 2016-2017. Data from National Weather Service

The trend line shows little change over the period 1941-2017. The drought of 2011-16 was severe enough to distort both the trend and the yearly average. The data does not demonstrate that rainfall shortfalls of similar sizes will frequently occur in the future.

What the data does show is that rainfall shortages over a three year period happen frequently in Los Angeles and have since records were first kept. It also shows that shortages are often followed by a year or more of higher than average rainfall.

I imported their data into a spreadsheet. Keeping in mind their caveat:

  • The highest rainfall totals were in 1883-84 and 2004-05. In 83-84, a record 38.78 inches fell, while in 04-05 37.25 inches fell.
  • In 2006-07, rainfall was at a record low, 3.21 inches. In 2001-02, the second lowest rainfall total was recorded, at 4.42 inches.
  • The longest period of below average rainfall totals was 2011-2016. In those five years, the accumulated rainfall totals were 34.96 inches below average.
  • The second worst period of below average rainfall totals was 1986-1990. It was another five year period, with a cumulative 26.71 inches below average.
  • In the 140 years of data, there are 14 periods of three or more years with below average rainfall.
  • In the 14 year period 1917-1931, there were 11 years with below average rainfall. In the seven year period 1958-1965, there were six years of below average rainfall.
Period Years Shortfall
2011-2016 5 34.96
1986-1991 5 26.71
1944-1950 6 26.37
1958-1961 3 25.64
1897-1900 3 23.69
1922-1925 3 20.12
2005-2008 3 19.99
1969-1972 3 16.99
1962-1965 3 14.25
1927-1931 4 11.54
1952-1955 3 10.86
1917-1920 3 10.33
1880-1883 3 8.61

What has changed, dramatically, is the population of Los Angeles County. From Los Angeles Almanac we learn that the population of the county in 1880 was 33,381. In 1900, it was 170, 298. By 1940, the population of the county had grown to 2,785,643.

By 1960, the population had more than doubled, to 6,039,834. Growth continued, and by 1990 the county held 9,818,605 people. The LA County government states that the 2016 population was 10,241,335.

It is fair to say that wildfires in Los Angeles County are more serious now than in the past. That point is demonstrated by the vastly increased population being exposed to the potential of wildfire. Ten million people need far more room than 33,000 or six million.

Is it climate change? The data does not support that hypothesis. Instead, the data suggests that the region routinely suffers periods of rainfall shortfalls followed by periods of higher than average rainfall. The key metric in the danger to property or persons from wildfires in Los Angeles may be the population increase, which has lead to more homes and businesses exposed to the dangers of wildfires.

Mindfulness and DBT

At the heart of Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT) is a concept called mindfulness. It is the classic dialectical concept, both simple and complex, easy and difficult. Many DBT practitioners bring Eastern philosophies and practices to the teaching and practice of mindfulness but I want to talk more about my understanding of it and how I apply it in my own life.

We go through life with various levels of awareness of the world around us. A neurosurgeon needs to be intensely focused on his brain surgery and little else. A child, playing in an open field, is aware of the sun, the sky, the breeze, the plants and flowers, playmates and pets. Very differing levels of awareness.

Many of us, mentally ill or not, spend a great deal of our time far more intensely focused than we need to be. In particular, for those of us who have a mental illness, that focus is often on negative emotions and undesirable behaviors, and we shut out the rest of the world around us.

Mindfulness is living, being, in the present. It’s easy to stop ruminating or anticipating for a few seconds and accept that which is now. Then, most of us go back to the thought processes and behaviors we were doing before we were “interrupted”.

That interruption is why DBT uses mindfulness. Being in the present moment rips us away from a past we cannot change no matter how much we ruminate. It takes us to the present where our emotions can be observed and named without being acted upon. It opens the world around us to our souls, where we can feel the warmth of sunlight or the smell of roses as part of our reality and not an intrusion.

I think most of us would agree that the guy who is so focused on his phone that he walks into the street and is hit by a car could use a whole lot of mindfulness. But, how many of us notice the trigger that results in our anger? It was there, I guarantee. Increasing our mindfulness means that we may be able to observe that trigger and not react with anger.

It is not a “time out” but a “time in”. By becoming more mindful, we became more accepting of reality, of ourselves, and of the existence around us. We become an actual observer of life, and able to make choices about our participation. It’s tough to take action if you don’t know what’s going on.

Mindfulness tells me that everything does not suck. Mindfulness tells me that there is more to life than reliving the past over and over. Mindfulness allows me to observe myself and my surroundings without making a judgement. It is what it is. I can observe and that allows me choices to participate.

Life is not depression and anxiety. It contains those emotions but it is not filled with them. I have a choice how I react to those emotions and that is one big step in healing from my mental illness. And I want to heal.