Anthrax Update

We are now several weeks into the anthrax attack on America. Little of what I wrote weeks ago is changed.

The first thing to remember is that the detection equipment can apparently detect extremely small numbers of anthrax spores, numbers well below the level believed necessary for infection. And, that the preliminary tests seem to be giving a number of false positives, so we shouldn't be alarmed by initial reports.

ABC today announced that traces of anthrax have been found in a small mail room in the building where the little girl contracted skin anthrax. Still, it is a question how this girl, too young to even toddle, caught skin anthrax in a visit to her mother's workplace.

There are no known anthrax contaminations outside the United States that cannot directly be traced to U.S. State Department mailings to our diplomats overseas.

The number of cases has remained stable since the death of the Nguyn woman in New York City. It is very likely that anyone with direct contact to the anthrax that was originally mailed has contracted the disease or else will not. That does not mean to eliminate the possibility that after the Congressional mail is decontaminated, that they may still find one or more additional letters.

There appears to have been a case in New Jersey of a woman who lived near the contaminated postal facility. I question that, as I do reports of a similar case in Florida. All of the other cases were in much closer proximal contact to the letters.

The Nguyn woman is highly likely to have had contact with the originators of this attack, since all other exposures have been ruled out. Wouldn't it be extraordinary if this turned out to be about the thirty year old War in Vietnam? More likely is that she knew the terrorist(s), drank with them, or was a lover, or just visited their home to sell Girl Scout cookies.

Science has learned a lot about anthrax and how much it spreads. The number of spores contained in a space the size of a period in a newspaper, if inhaled deeply is enough to cause infection. How much power was in the letter to the Senator remains a mystery, but perhaps less than a tablespoon. I would guess that much more would have limited the spread as it was processed by the Post Office. By that I mean that a quantity was observed when the letter was opened, so how much was lost in the handling? I would surmise about the same amount, certainly not a half pound. Most of the powder would have still been in the envelope, absent it having been seriously damaged in postal processing, when it was opened, so the initial quantity had to have been relatively small.